← Grand Archive: Distorted Reflections Case Tournament @ Taps Games
Fire RileTier 2
at Grand Archive: Distorted Reflections Case Tournament @ Taps Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 20.0% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 47.2% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Kongming | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |